Hot Money Arena
Late-cycle. Output above potential. Inflation pressure building. CB tight, watching for cracks.
Easing cycle still working through the system. Output gap closing from below trend. Inflation soft.
The rate differential is +4.50%, pulling capital into Home. Watch the FX path and carry P&L below; the simulation is running.
CB tight · curve flat / inverted · carry trades crowded · FX overshooting
Fine-tune
CB cutting · curve steep · capital pushed out to higher-yielding markets
Fine-tune
Capital flow arena
Each particle is hot money in motion. Flow direction follows the rate differential; density scales with the magnitude. Country rings reflect the current cycle phase.
Exchange rate over time
Home currency per Foreign unit · lower = stronger Home
Carry P&L · long Home / short Foreign
Rate-diff accrual + FX MTM.
Dornbusch phase detector
Move a slider or pick a phase. Detector identifies which Dornbusch stage you are in.
What to try
Home: Peak · Foreign: Recovery
Your current scene. CB tight · curve flat / inverted · carry trades crowded · FX overshooting. Foreign is recovery — cb cutting · curve steep · capital pushed out to higher-yielding markets.
Cycle Home through all four phases
Use the phase chips on the Home card or the 'Run full cycle' button. Watch FX overshoot, retrace, and flip as the rate diff crosses zero.
Hike Home by 200 bp
Watch the FX line jump (overshoot) and then decay back toward the new equilibrium. The faster you change the rate, the bigger the visible overshoot.
Cross the parity line
Move the Home rate above and below Foreign. The particle flow reverses direction and color. This is the entire pull/push mechanic in one moment.
Try peg + open capital
Switch regime to 'Peg + open capital' and set Home rate ≠ Foreign rate. The simulator fires the Mundell–Fleming warning.
Watch the carry P&L
The chart is the running P&L of a long-Home / short-Foreign carry position with FX adjustment. Flip the rate sign and watch the line go negative — that is the carry unwind.
Simulator FAQ
How is the exchange rate modeled?
The long-run equilibrium FX is a linear function of the rate differential. When the differential changes, the equilibrium jumps. The "actual" FX overshoots that equilibrium and then exponentially decays back toward it. This is a simplified Dornbusch overshooting model.
Why do the particles change color and direction when I cross the parity line?
Particles represent hot money flow. They emit from the lower-rate country and travel toward the higher-rate country. Above parity, money is pulled into Home; below parity, money is pushed out. The color (green vs. rose) makes the direction obvious.
When does the trilemma warning fire?
The simulator fires when the active regime is "peg + open capital" and the user tries to set a Home rate different from the Foreign rate. In that combination, the central bank cannot independently set the policy rate without breaking the peg — that is the Mundell–Fleming impossible trinity.
How is the carry-trade P&L computed?
It tracks a fixed "long Home, short Foreign" position. Each tick adds (rdHome − rfForeign) prorated for time, plus a mark-to-market on the Home currency. When Home becomes the lower-yielder, both legs turn against you. That is the textbook carry-unwind risk.
What do the cycle phase chips represent?
Each country starts in a business-cycle phase. Click a chip to load a typical macro profile (policy rate, expected inflation, output gap). Fine-tune from there using the sliders. The phase chip stays put even if you adjust manually — it represents the scene you are studying.